2009 Workshop:CEDAR ETI Challenge

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CEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere Modeling Challenge

Anasazi South, 1930-2130, 29 June 2009

Conveners

Maria Kuznetsova
Barbara Emery
Jan Sojka
Aaron Ridley
John Holt
Jiuhou Lei

Workshop Categories

Altitudes: IT - Latitudes: global - Inst/Model: modeling - Other: comparison with observations

Format of the Workshop

Round Table

Estimated attendance

50

Conflicts with other workshops or Requested Specific Days

none

Special technology requests

Description

The International Space Science Institute in Bern, Switzerland, was the host of an ionospheric modeling challenge in 2008 based on the year-long incoherent scatter radar (ISR) runs of EISCAT, Svalbard, and Poker Flat (PFISR) from March 2007 to March 2008. The other ISRs contributed 31 hours per month and PFISR is still making daily observations in a low duty cycle mode. Various global ionospheric models attempted to reproduce the NmF2 and hmF2 for this year of data that is stored in the madrigal Database (http://madrigal.haystack.mit.edu/madrigal) in the CEDAR Community along with an associated wiki page (http://www.haystack.mit.edu/cgi-bin/asg_science/ipy.cgi/). The modelers are invited to show 2-3 plots only of their yearly fits in the first 25 minutes of this workshop as a lead-in to planning for a CEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere Modeling Challenge. This challenge will help to evaluate the current state of the space physics modeling capability and to address the differences between various modeling approaches. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center can support this activity using their experience with the GEM community and the CCMC available interface.

The first part of such a challenge is to assemble modelers and data providers. We anticipate choosing the March 2007 to March 2008 time-frame. This period is the first half of the International Polar Year (IPY) from March 2007 to March 2009. We need to agree on physical parameters to be used for the metrics. Some possibilities for the ionosphere which are already in the madrigal DB are: the network of ground-based TEC using Anthea Coster's analysis, hmF2 and NmF2 for all the available ISR sites during this year, altitude profiles of electron density (Ne) from the ISRs. Other possibilities are tomography Ne and COSMIC Ne. (Unfortunately C/NOFS was launched in April 2009 after this period.) Possible metrics for the neutral thermosphere are the CHAMP satellite neutral densities scaled to 400 km altitude and [O/N2] ratios from the GUVI/TIMED satellite. Electrodynamic metrics could be ISR ion drifts and SUPERDarn ion drifts.

We should also choose if the whole year is to be in the challenge, or only selected quiet days or moderately disturbed days, since there are no massive magnetic storms in this solar minimum period. The IT Modeling Workshop by Huba on Monday at 1 PM will also be looking at IT models results for two low solar activity days in this period: April 1 (07091 R=10) and June 21 (07172 R=0).

Please come prepared to discuss what reliable observations to use and for what time period for this challenge. The chosen observations will be stored both in the madrigal DB and in the CCMC. Model results would be expected to be submitted to the CCMC twice before the next CEDAR Workshop, perhaps in November 2009 and in May 2010, where the second submissions can demonstrate model improvement. It is not necessary that the models be running in the CCMC, and both empirical and first-principal models are welcome. Similar GEM challenges supported by the CCMC are located at http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/support/GEM_metrics_08/.

Draft Agenda

  • 1930-1935: B Emery (NCAR) Introduction
  • 1935-2000: 5-min presentations of ionospheric modeling based on ISRs in the IPY
    • P Richards, Results of the Field Line Interhemispheric Plasma (FLIP) Model
    • M Fedrizzi/T Fuller-Rowell (CIRES/NOAA) Results of the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere (CTIP) Model
    • D Pawlowski (U MI), Results of the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM)
    • J Sojka (USU), Results of the Time Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM)
  • 2000-2010: M. Kuznetsova (CCMC/GSFC), Results of GEM Challenges within the Auspices of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)
  • 2010-2130: Open discussion
    • Time period (07060-08091 low solar activity, |Kp|=daily average)
      • Huba smin equinox 07091 (|Kp| 4, HSS) and solstice 07172 (|Kp| 3-, slow-HSS)
      • CME 07323 (|Kp| 0-) 17UT - 07324 (|Kp| 4-) 20 UT
      • HSS with |Kp|>=4: 07091, 07118, 07143-07144, 07272, 08069, 08087
      • slow-speed wind with |Kp|<=0+: 07280-07284, 07310-07311, 07336-07338
      • other??
    • Parameters to test against:
      • Electrodynamics (JRO Vi; Cross-tail potential drop?; ...)
      • Thermosphere (CHAMP neutral density at 400 km; Tn from satellite or FPI?; ...)
      • Ionosphere (ISR hmF2, NmF2; GPS TEC; ISR Ti,Te?, ...)
    • Data availability (madrigal DB, CEDAR DB, CCMC)
    • Etc

Workshop Summary

The final summary workshop report is also in the presentation below by Masha Kuznetsova. A short version of the last page follows.

  • CEDAR Climatology 'year': March 1, 2008 to March 31, 2009 (07060-08091)
  1. Huba smin equinox 07091 (|Kp| 4, HSS) and solstice 07172 (|Kp| 3-, slow-HSS)
  2. CME 07323 (|Kp| 0-) 17UT - 07324 (|Kp| 4-) 20 UT
  3. HSS with |Kp|>=4: 07091, 07118, 07143-07144, 07272, 08069, 08087
  4. slow-speed wind with |Kp|<=0+: 07280-07284, 07310-07311, 07336-07338
  5. WHI first period (08080-08107) is at the end of this period, where the first HSS is 08086-08090.
  • GEM Storm Event Studies (choose 2005 and 2006 for 2010 CETI Challenge)
  1. 6 UT 29 Oct 2003 to 6 UT 30 Oct 2003 (03302-03303 'Halloween Storm')
  2. 12 UT 14 Dec 2006 to 0 UT 16 Dec or 24 UT 17 Dec 2006 (06348-06349 'AGU Storm')
  3. 0 UT 31 Aug 2001 to 0 UT 01 Sep or 24 UT Aug 2001 (01243)
  4. 10 UT 31 Aug 2005 to 12 UT 01 Sep 2005 (05243-05244)
  • Parameters and data (in madrigal) to be tested against for timeline

comparisons with a small number of instruments and global comparisons for a large number of points (like global TEC):

  1. Electrodynamic as Viz from Jicamarca ISR, JULIA, and estimates using g-b equatorial daytime ground magnetometers (Dave Anderson/Koki Chau)
  2. Thermosphere
    1. Neutral density at 400 km from CHAMP and satellite drag (Bruce Bowman)
    2. Exospheric neutral temperature from GUVI/TIMED (Bob Meier)
    3. Neutral Winds from FPI 630 nm
  3. Ionosphere:
    1. Ne as vertical TEC from gb madrigal and COSMIC; NmF2 and hmF2 from ISRs and COSMIC; and electron density at 400 km from CHAMP
    2. Te and Ti from ISRs

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